The carbon budget of Canadian forests: a sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates.

Ecosystem responses to climate changes will affect the exchange of carbon (C) with the atmosphere, thus providing feedback for future climate response. We have developed a C budget model of Canadian forests and forest sector activities and used sensitivity analysis runs with changes in productivity, decomposition, and disturbance regimes to assess the sensitivity of the Canadian forest sector C budget over the next century. The model operates on data derived from Canada's National Forest Biomass Inventory, from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory global soil C data base, and from Canadian data bases that document areas annually disturbed by fire, insects, and harvesting. It simulates the dynamics of biomass and soil C pools (including detritus and coarse woody debris) as they are affected by growth, decomposition, and disturbances. For the reference run of the model, we assumed unchanging climate and disturbance regimes. Under these conditions, total ecosystem C increased by 2 Gt C (2.3%) over the 100-year simulation period. In the sensitivity analysis, we explored the effects of changes in the area annually disturbed by fire and insect-induced stand mortality (-60 to +300%), growth rates (-10 to +20%), decomposition rates (-10 to +25%), and combined changes in growth and decomposition rates. In every model run, the change of total ecosystem C relative to the reference run was less than 10%. Combined changes to growth and decomposition rates yielded very small deviations from the results of the reference run (-0.8 to +1.2%). Because disturbance regime changes affect forest age-class structure as well as forest dynamics, they are expected to affect C budgets strongly. Total ecosystem C, however, is slightly more sensitive to changes in growth and decomposition parameters than to changes in disturbance regimes. Although the sensitivity analysis results suggest that C budgets are little affected by the range of parameter changes implemented here, we must emphasize that our sensitivity analyses do not account for potentially important processes, such as regeneration failure or the shifts in forest distribution.